Building Supply Chain Resilience: Insights from Dr Richard Wilding OBE
In a world shaken by constant disruptions — pandemics, geopolitical tensions, and blocked trade routes — the conversation around supply chain resilience has never been more important. Few voices carry as much authority on this subject as Dr Richard Wilding OBE, Professor of Supply Chain Strategy at Cranfield University, a global top 10 influencer, and one of the world’s leading thinkers on supply chain risk and resilience.
In a recent interview, Dr Wilding shared insights into the origins of his research, the evolution of supply chain risk management, and the future direction of resilient supply chain design.
The Origins of a Supply Chain Pioneer
Dr Wilding began his career in materials engineering before moving into industry, where he worked in the brick and metal refining sectors as a production manager and systems engineer. His shift into academia came through the Warwick Manufacturing Group, under the leadership of the late Lord Bhattacharyya, where he combined industrial practice with research excellence.
By the late 1990s, Wilding had joined Cranfield University, which he describes as “one of the few places in the world with specialists in every aspect of the supply chain — from manufacturing to freight and logistics.”
His doctoral work laid the foundation for what would later become central themes in modern supply chain theory. Drawing from Jay Forrester’s early work on demand amplification, Wilding explored what he termed the “ripple effect” and “deterministic chaos” — concepts that show how small disruptions in one area of a supply chain can cause widespread instability elsewhere.
“Sometimes, a system that looks stable can suddenly spike into chaos,” Wilding explains. “Those fluctuations can then cause amplification up and down the supply chain — what we now call the bullwhip effect.”
From Research to Real-World Events
The early 2000s presented perfect case studies for his theories. Events like the fuel crisis, foot-and-mouth disease, and 9/11 exposed vulnerabilities across UK and global supply chains.
These crises led to government-funded projects at Cranfield focusing on supply chain risk and resilience, supported by the Department for Transport. Out of this research came practical risk management tools and frameworks — many of which are still in use today.
One of the most influential models from this work is the “Temple of Supply Chain Resilience”, a visual framework that captures the essential elements of building resilient and agile supply networks.
The Temple of Supply Chain Resilience
At the base of Dr Wilding’s “temple” is a strong supply chain strategy, aligned directly with the company’s competitive strategy.
“The supply chain strategy is how you deliver value to the customer,” Wilding explains. “It’s built on process design, infrastructure, information systems, and organisational structure.”
Above this base are four core pillars that support resilience:
- Agility – The ability to adapt quickly to change. Cranfield’s Agile Supply Chain Research Club, founded in 1999, continues to drive innovation in this area.
- Collaboration – Managing supplier and partner relationships proactively, not reactively.
- Risk Management Culture – Building awareness at every level of decision-making, from sourcing to logistics.
- Transparency and Intelligence – Ensuring real-time visibility across networks through data, analytics, and continuous monitoring.
“Supply chain management is fundamentally about managing relationships,” Wilding stresses. “They don’t happen by accident. You have to invest in them — with resources, people, and clear performance indicators.”
Designing Products and Supply Chains Together
Wilding highlights one of the most overlooked areas in corporate practice: integrating supply chain professionals early in product design.
Traditionally, supply chain teams are brought in only after R&D finalises a prototype — often too late to influence material choice or supplier strategy.
“Many risks are baked into the product design stage,” says Wilding. “If you choose a material that only comes from one country, you’ve built fragility into your system.”
He cites examples such as the COVID-19 vaccine rollout, where logistics specialists had to address the challenge of transporting Pfizer’s -75°C vials versus AstraZeneca’s chilled versions. Effective supply chain design requires thinking about distribution feasibility, network design, and ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) risks — not just manufacturing costs.
“Whether it’s a printer or an electric vehicle battery, supply chain design has to support the product’s function, not follow it.”
Demand Planning in a Post-COVID World
One of the most engaging parts of the discussion revolved around forecasting and demand planning in an era of uncertainty.
Wilding joked,
“There are only two types of forecasts — lucky ones and wrong ones.”
During the pandemic, historical data became useless. Traditional forecasting methods broke down as demand for products fluctuated wildly. Many organisations began “sandbagging” — over-ordering stock out of fear of shortages — which only worsened the bullwhip effect.
To overcome this, Wilding advocates for clear communication and end-to-end visibility.
“You’ve got to get transparency of true end-customer demand. When companies stop trusting each other’s data, chaos begins.”
He recalls a case where an automotive supplier reduced volatility simply by speaking directly with car dealerships about their real sales, rather than relying on tiered forecasts. Transparency and collaboration, he says, are the ultimate antidotes to supply chain noise.
Continuous Monitoring and Real-Time Awareness
Wilding describes continuous monitoring as the “nervous system” of modern supply chains.
Firms like DHL Resilience360 already use real-time analytics to track everything from weather disruptions to social media signals. Wilding recommends that organisations actively monitor:
- Global logistics feeds
- Labour union activities
- Natural disasters
- Social media chatter and press releases
“It’s not just about quantitative data — it’s about qualitative signals too,” he notes. “If a volcano erupts near a major airport or a canal gets blocked, you need teams ready to act immediately.”
This approach allows for proactive risk management — identifying potential threats before they become full-scale disruptions.
Final Advice: Relationships Are Everything
When asked for one key takeaway for supply chain professionals, Dr Wilding’s response was simple and powerful:
“Learn to manage relationships. Those who did well during the pandemic were the ones who invested in collaboration — not just transactions.”
He predicts that ESG risk will dominate the next decade, with companies being judged not only on performance but also on social responsibility and ethical sourcing.
“I call it the ‘new better’ instead of the new normal,” he concludes. “This disruption will ultimately make global supply chains stronger, smarter, and more sustainable.”
Conclusion
Dr Richard Wilding’s work reminds us that resilience isn’t built in crisis — it’s designed long before. By combining data-driven monitoring, collaborative culture, and early involvement in product design, organisations can create supply chains that are not just efficient but truly anti-fragile.
As the world moves toward the “new better,” one thing is certain — those who build strong relationships and transparent systems today will lead the markets of tomorrow.
